The government of the Russian Federation announced that the compromise with Belarus on the issue of reducing gas prices starting from the beginning of the next year is reached, emphasizing the connection of this decision with the merger within the framework of the Customs Union and the acquisition of the second half of Beltransgaz assets by the Russian group. The decreasing coefficients however have not been made public yet, and the experts interviewed by the business news agency Prime believe that the negotiations are going to be complicated for both countries.
Besides, Russia made a rather blunt statement to Ukraine that Russian/Ukrainian gas difficulties can also be solved in the same manner. However the analysts draw attention to the fact that Gazprom is very dependent from Ukrainian transit and therefore there is a possibility that the agreement terms will be softer.
On the previous day Alexey Miller pointed out after the meeting with Dmitry Medvedev that the development of Russian/Ukrainian cooperation in the gas sphere could use a Belorussian model.
At the meeting Yury Boiko, the Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister presented a project of the development of gas transportation cooperation between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, the suggestions of the project include “not only mutual cooperation in the sphere of gas transportation but also interaction in other directions”.
Valery Nesterov, the analyst of the investment company Troika Dialog admits that the resolution of the problem with Belarus will implicitly contribute to the resolution of the Ukrainian gas issue which is as hot and has come to a deadlock some days ago. “Can this be a signal for Kyiv? This is quite possible. The parties should move towards each other, however without a political impulse the resolution of such important issues is not possible”, — the expert says.
Anna Yudina, the analyst of the Raiffeisen Bank, reminds on the contrary that the situation with Kyiv is fundamentally different: the volume of gas transit is much bigger; there are two signed agreements – the transportation one and the sales one. It will be more difficult to come to an agreement because the cost of it for the Russian group is much higher.
However one can hardly expect delivery interruptions as it was in 2009, she thinks. “In the fourth quarter Russia expects reduction of the purchase amount in the European region, that is why it should be interested in avoiding problems. And purchases on the part of Ukraine in the first and the second quarters have been very significant”, — she emphasizes.
It is most probable, that the agreement will be reached and there is still time for that. It is more than likely that it will not be bound to purchase and sale agreements on any Ukrainian assets, the Raiffeisen Bank expert draws the line.
Метки: energy industry news 2011, gas, gas price, Gazprom, politics, Russia/Ukraine gas agreement, Russian energy industry news, Russian/Belorussian gas agreeement, Белтрансгаз
