Oil’s Rising Again as Iran’s Warning of War Ratchets Up Tensions

Bloomberg By Saket Sundria September, 20 04:30 GMT+3

Iran says any U.S., Saudi strike would lead to “all-out war”
Brent crude up almost 8% this week at close to $65 a barrel

In this article CL1: WTI Crude 58.61 USD/bbl. +0.48 +0.83%

The threat of war in the Middle East is pushing oil prices higher again, capping one of the most dramatic ever weeks for crude in which 5% of the world’s supplies were cut by attacks on Saudi production facilities.

While Saudi Arabia’s efforts to restore output and assurances that the world has adequate supply have helped temper some of the unprecedented gains in the aftermath of the attacks, prices are still up almost 8% this week near $65 a barrel. The U.S. and Saudis say evidence points to Iran’s involvement and the threat of retaliatory action against the Islamic Republic is keeping oil elevated. Iran’s foreign minister warned that any strike would lead to “all-out war”.

Oil is headed for its best week in eight months

The ratcheting up of instability in the world’s most important oil-producing region has raised the risk premium for prices, which are almost $5 a barrel higher than before last weekend’s attacks on the Saudi facilities. There’s also prevailing concern about how long it will take the kingdom to fully restore lost production, as it depletes reserves to meet supply commitments and operates without its usual buffer of spare capacity.

“The market has taken Saudi reassurances on restoration of full production by the end of this month with a grain of salt, given the estimated extent of damage at Abqaiq”, said Vandana Hari, founder and chief executive officer of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “The mounting rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran adds to the market’s nervousness, but I see less than a tail risk of military conflict in the region”.

Options traders have become the most bullish on Brent crude in eight years due to concerns over security of oil supplies. The unprecedented strike and cross-accusations involving Saudi Arabia and Iran in the past week have driven up the price of one-month benchmark calls to their most expensive relative to puts since March 2011.

Brent crude for November settlement rose 26 cents, or 0.4%, to $64.66 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange as of 8:07 a.m. in London. The contract is up 7.4% this week, the biggest weekly increase since January.

Oil markets swung between despair and optimism this week

West Texas Intermediate for October delivery gained 48 cents, or 0.8%, to $58.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The American benchmark up about 7% this week, the most since June.

The global benchmark crude was at a $6.05 premium to the U.S. marker for the same month, while the cost of prompt supplies of the London grade against later shipments increased earlier this week to the highest level since late-June.

“Given the level of uncertainty into the weekend, prices could remain skewed to the upside”, Stephen Innes, Asia-Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader, said in an emailed note.

Some of the gains in prices have also been tempered by a storm flooding the U.S. Gulf Coast, threatening to curb demand for crude. The remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda dumped more than three feet of rain on parts of the Texas coast, cutting refinery operations and shutting a key pipeline.

— With assistance by Heesu Lee

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